With the threat of a possible resurgence of Al Qaida (AQ) activity in the summer of 2007, I thought it would be a good time to revisit AQ doctrine on targeting key persons.
The best open source of information on AQ doctrine is a terrorist training manual recovered in Manchester England in May 2000 during a search of the apartment of a suspected AQ member. There are other terrorist training manuals believed to exist and indeed there might be a more current manual(s) in the hands of the U.S. Government but regardless, this manual affords us a basis for which to analysis AQ tactics and techniques with a view towards predictive analysis of AQ assassination tactics.
AQ doctrine considers “assassinations, bombings and demolition, assaults and kidnapping hostages” as “Special Operations.” AQ special operations are built on a three stage “Special Operational Tactical Plan” consisting of:
1. Research (reconnaissance) stage
2. Planning stage
3. Execution stage
The terrorist training manual describes in detail what occurs during each stage but notably the “Research stage” specifically describes what information is collected “to assassinate an important target-a personality…” The stages described in the training manual reflects what is typically found in the hostile planning cycle i.e. surveillance, pre-attack planning etc…
What is particularly interesting in the training manual is the section which describes the religious justification for the treatment of hostages. This section is entitled “Guidelines for Beating and Killing Hostages.” In this section, the manual’s author justifies the beating and killing of hostages, particularly “nonbelievers,” based on approval derived from religious scholars who interpreted the actions of the Prophet Mohammed in similar circumstances.
Another interesting aspect of the training manual is an extensive section devoted to “information gathering” by both overt and covert means. AQ makes, and will continue to make, extensive use of pre-operational surveillance. Pre operational surveillance has been their modus operandi in virtually every centrally controlled and directed AQ operation. This reinforces the need to employ surveillance detection as a proactive measure to detect, record, and report pre-operational indicators associated with possible attack planning.
The terrorist training manual also devotes considerable space to kidnapping and assassination using “rifles and pistols.” In addition to describing how pistols and rifles function and various shooting techniques, the manual also details four assassination scenarios: shooting a target while the target is crossing a street, blocking a target’s vehicle during an assassination, an assassination while the target is entering a building and fourth, an assassination of a target on a route between the target’s home and work.
An analysis of the four assassination techniques with rifles and pistols does not indicate any significant departure from previously known assassination techniques. If anything, it indicates that AQ assassination attempts will very likely rely on tried and true methods particularly those where the assassins succeeded.
The AQ manual also discusses assassinations using explosives, and called explosive assassinations the preferred method for assassination. The manual cites several advantages namely that explosives are the “safest weapon,” using explosives facilitates escapes and that the resulting explosion destroys evidence. With the wide spread use of IED, EFPs and VBIEDs in Iraq, explosive ambushes will likely increase as a means of AQ assassinations although it is doubtful that AQ can recreate explosive ambushes outside of Iraq on the scale that currently exists there. Nevertheless, the lessons learned there will be employed either in part or in whole, outside of Iraq in the future.
The final section on assassinations discusses assassinations using a knife and poisons. Here to, standard techniques are described for assassination by knife. The poisons section covers ricin in detail and other less exotic means of poison such as tobacco and spoiled food.
The final analysis of AQ assassination doctrine doesn’t reveal any particularly unusual or innovative methods. However this might be by design. AQ has until now, demonstrated a tendency to repeat tactics and techniques that have been the most successful for them. Once successfully employed, AQ will revert to these tactics in favor of using a new tactic with less chance of success. This provides a significant tactical advantage for the EP specialist who might have to counter AQ assassination attempts in that AQs approach will be somewhat predictable. However, care must be taken to ensure that predictability does not lapse into complacency because we think we know our adversary.
